Estimating Seismic-Expected Annual Loss of Gas Distribution Networks Using a Monte Carlo Simulation: A Case Study of Tehran, Iran

This study presents a probabilistic approach for estimating the economic loss of the gas distribution network in terms of expected annual loss, using the Monte Carlo simulation approach. The methodology involves generating synthetic earthquake catalogs and estimating ground motion values to derive the expected annual loss. This is an effective approach for properly modeling spatially correlated ground motion values, as well as variabilities of damage types and vulnerabilities. This paper addresses these uncertainties and adopts a probabilistic procedure to capture them. As a case study, the proposed approach is applied to assess the annual loss of the gas distribution network in Tehran, Iran. The results indicate that the expected annual loss for pressure reduction stations is $1.14±0.51 million, which is significantly greater than the $200,334±7350 for buried pipelines. This issue highlights the importance of prioritizing pressure reduction stations in seismic risk mitigation plans. The majority of damage may occur in the southern and eastern parts of Tehran, necessitating the need for targeted mitigation strategies in these areas. It is noted that this study focuses on direct economic losses and acknowledges the potential overestimation due to the assumption of disjoint probability among different hazards.