The Imminent Copper Tailings Crisis in China

Mineral resources are vital to economic and social development, yet tailings generation and storage pose major sustainability challenges. In the context of addressing climate change and China's "dual carbon" goals, the country's increasing demand for copper, together with the lack of basic data on tailings, hampers effective management. This study develops a copper tailings generation accounting model integrated with dynamic material flow analysis to quantify provincial copper tailings generation in China from 1950 to 2060. It further examines the impacts of circular economy strategies and international trade on addressing the tailings crisis. The results show that approximately 5.56 Gt of copper tailings were cumulatively generated between 1950 and 2020, and under a carbon neutrality scenario, the total amount could reach 19.01 Gt between 2021 and 2060, posing challenges to "Zero-Waste city" development. The toxicity assessment of tailings storage reveals that Yunnan Province exhibits the highest freshwater ecotoxicity, creating obstacles to implementing the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework. Circular economy interventions are crucial for mitigating the crisis, while trade measures may shift environmental pressures across regions. Stronger collaboration among mining enterprises, policymakers, designers, consumers, and waste management entities is crucial for preventing a tailings crisis and advancing sustainable development.