Impact of the household dependency burden on grain total factor productivity: Evidence from China

China's increasingly aging population and relaxed fertility policies have intensified the burden on rural farmers who must support both minors and older adults. This household dependency burden (HDB) constrains farmers' agricultural investments and limits improvements in grain production efficiency. This study examines the impact of the HDB on rice total factor productivity (TFP) growth and its underlying mechanisms. Using farmers' microdata from fixed observation points across rural China, the analysis applies stochastic frontier analysis and a fixed-effects model with robust standard errors. Results show that the HDB reduces farmers' productive investment and land-use expansion, thereby hindering both technical efficiency and technical progress in rice production. Consequently, rice TFP growth is restricted, although this effect can be mitigated through socialized agricultural services. The study offers policy recommendations, including advancing urban–rural integration, easing urban–rural migration restrictions, strengthening rural childcare and eldercare systems, improving agricultural service provision, and fostering innovative production models.