Mitigation strategies for achieving carbon neutrality in the iron and steel industry—a case study of Sichuan, China

• A linear bottom-up technology and energy selection model explores carbon-neutral pathways for Sichuan's iron and steel industry. • Hydrogen, neutral gas, and electricity would account for ∼70 % of energy consumption by 2060. • Beyond hydrogen routes, lowering hot metal use in scrap steelmaking and deploying CCUS remain essential. Combating climate change calls for a low-carbon shift in China's steel industry. With strong renewable energy and widespread use of electric arc furnaces, Sichuan Province is expected to follow a distinct decarbonisation pathway. This study developed a Linear Bottom-up Technology and Energy Selection Model to simulate carbon emission trajectories of Sichuan's iron and steel industry through 2060. The model explicitly incorporates three steelmaking processes: blast furnace–basic oxygen furnace (BF–BOF), scrap-based electric arc furnace (Scrap–EAF), and hydrogen-based direct reduced iron coupled with EAF (DRI–EAF), under three crude steel demand scenarios peaking in 2024, 2027, and 2030. Results indicate that, by 2060, crude steel output will decline by 50%–65%, driving energy consumption down by 71%–80%. Consequently, CO 2 emissions will be reduced by over 90%, with emissions intensity falling to 0.3–0.4 tCO 2 per ton of crude steel. The energy mix shifts significantly, with hydrogen (30%), natural gas (22%), and electricity (19%) replacing coal and coke. BF–BOF will be phased out, while Scrap–EAF will account for 70% of production, and DRI–EAF will rise to 30%, being introduced between 2044 and 2048. Despite deep reductions, carbon capture, utilisation, and storage (CCUS) remains essential for neutralising residual emissions, capturing up to 38% of gross emissions removal. Cost analysis reveals that DRI–EAF requires either a decrease in hydrogen price or the implementation of a carbon pricing mechanism to achieve cost parity. These findings highlight that achieving a cost-effective low-carbon transition requires early demand peaking, the synergistic expansion of Scrap-EAF and DRI-EAF routes, limiting the use of hot metal, and the targeted deployment of CCUS.