The discursive silos of transport discourse in Sweden: Using future storylines to understand the polarization and politicization of sustainable aviation transitions

Within the multi-level perspective (MLP) on sustainability transitions, there has been a rise in research on storylines and discursive framing that have become more central in understanding how competing narratives shape the trajectories of innovation. This paper examines how policy actors and stakeholders construct and frame competing scenario narratives of sustainable aviation futures. Using a scenario narrative framing approach, we analyze empirical data from focus groups and interviews with Swedish aviation sector actors. The findings reveal a discursive split: one set of narratives supports an active state fostering sustainable aviation through niche innovation (aligned with ecological modernism), while another advocates for limiting aviation altogether (reflecting green theory). These national narratives are contrasted by a multilateral, risk-averse discourse calling for international or EU-level decision-making processes. Our results highlight a deeper divide — scenario narratives are polarized and politicized, with transport mode innovations increasingly tied to political identities. Centre-right actors tend to support aviation innovation over rail, while green and Centre-left actors often argue the reverse. This politicization reflects broader discursive struggles, as seen in debates such as the proposed closure of Västerås regional airport and Bromma airport. This includes dissuading tourists who use aircrafts, excluding aviation from approaches to collective traffic and lacking integration in any public transport system. This leads to aviation being perceived neither as private nor collective transport in discourses and as ambivalent in policies.