Unveiling Drivers of Green Production in Forest-Grown Ginseng Farms in China: An Ordered Probit-LGBM Fusion Approach

This study investigates the drivers of green production practices among forest-cultivated ginseng growers in Jilin Province, China, by integrating the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) and the Technology–Organization–Environment (TOE) framework. Based on survey data from 369 households in the major production regions of Tonghua, Baishan, and Yanbian areas, an Ordered Probit model and a Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LGBM) algorithm are employed for cross-validation. The results indicate that growers’ cognitive traits (awareness of green production standards and ecological/quality safety) and willingness (acceptance of price premiums for green products) are the most stable and critical drivers. Policy incentives (e.g., certification subsidies and outreach) not only directly promote green practices but also exhibit synergistic effects through interactions with resource endowments and psychological cognition. Regional heterogeneity is evident: Tonghua shows policy–market co-drive, Baishan is dominated by ecological constraints and safeguard policies, while Yanbian relies more on education and individual resources. Accordingly, this study proposes a differentiated policy system based on diagnosis–intervention–evaluation to support the high-quality development of forest-cultivated ginseng industry and ecological-economic synergies.