Ground-Type Classification from Earth-Pressure-Balance Shield Operational Data with Uncertainty Quantification

In urban underground space construction using shield tunnelling, the geological conditions ahead of the tunnel face are often uncertain. Without timely and accurate classification of the ground type, mismatches in operational parameters, uncontrolled costs, and schedule risks are likely to occur. Using observations from an earth pressure balance (EPB) project on an urban railway, a data-driven classification framework is developed that integrates shield tunnelling operating measurements with physically derived quantities to discriminate among soft soil, hard rock, and mixed strata. Principal component analysis (PCA) is performed on the training set, followed by a systematic comparison of tree-based classifiers and hyperparameter optimization strategies to explore the attainable performance. Under unified evaluation criteria, a categorical bosting (CatBoost) model optimized by a Nevergrad combination strategy (NGOpt) attains the highest test accuracy of 0.9625, with macro-averaged precision and macro-averaged recall of 0.9715 and 0.9716, respectively. To mitigate optimism from single-point estimates, stratified bootstrap intervals are reported for the test set. A Monte Carlo experiment applies independent perturbations to the PCA-transformed features, producing low label-flip rates across the three classes, with only minor changes in probability calibration metrics, which suggests consistent decisions under sensor noise and sampling bias. Overall, within the scope of the considered EPB project, the study delivers a compact workflow that demonstrates the feasibility of uncertainty-aware ground-type classification and provides a methodological reference for developing decision-support tools in underground tunnel construction.