The global hydrogen budget

Hydrogen (H<sub>2</sub>) will play a part in decarbonizing the global energy system<sup>1</sup>. However, hydrogen interacts with methane, ozone, and stratospheric water vapour, leading to an indirect 100-year global warming potential of 11 ± 4 (refs. <sup>2-5</sup>). This raises concerns about the climate consequences of increasing H<sub>2</sub> use under future hydrogen economies<sup>3,5</sup>. A comprehensive accounting of H<sub>2</sub> sources and sinks is essential for assessing changes and mitigating environmental risks. Here we analyse trends in global H<sub>2</sub> sources and sinks from 1990 to 2020 and construct a comprehensive budget for the decade 2010-2020. H<sub>2</sub> sources increased from 1990 to 2020, primarily because of the oxidation of methane and anthropogenic non-methane volatile organic compounds, biogenic nitrogen fixation, and leakage from H<sub>2</sub> production. Sinks also increased in response to rising atmospheric H<sub>2</sub>. Estimated global H<sub>2</sub> sources and sinks averaged 69.9 ± 9.4 Tg yr<sup>-1</sup> and 68.4 ± 18.1 Tg yr<sup>-1</sup>, respectively, for 2010-2020. Regionally, Africa and South America contained the largest sources and sinks of H<sub>2</sub>, whereas East Asia and North America contributed the most H<sub>2</sub> emissions from fossil fuel combustion. We estimate that rising atmospheric H<sub>2</sub> between 2010 and 2020 contributed to an increase in global surface air temperature (GSAT) of 0.02 ± 0.006 °C. GSAT impacts of changing atmospheric H<sub>2</sub> in future marker Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios are estimated to remain within 0.01-0.05 °C, depending on H<sub>2</sub> usage, leakage rates and CH<sub>4</sub> emissions that influence photochemical H<sub>2</sub> production.

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Journal
Nature
Published
2025-12-17
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-025-09806-1
Citations
4
Primary Topic
Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
4.42
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article

The global hydrogen budget

Daniel Kennedy, Fraser Dennison, Naveen Chandra, Joeri Rogelj et al.
4 citations
Nature
Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
4.42
article

The global hydrogen budget

Daniel Kennedy, Fraser Dennison, Naveen Chandra, Joeri Rogelj, Chenghao Wang, Steven J. Davis, Sebastian Lienert, Chris Jones, Marielle Saunois, Yuanhong Zhao, Pete Smith, Gabrielle Pétron, A. Wiltshire, Didier Hauglustaine, Glen P. Peters, Alexander T. Archibald, Danica Lombardozzi, Jürgen Knauer, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Sarah Féron, Vivek K. Arora, Josep G. Canadell, Prabir K. Patra, Michael O’Sullivan, Joe R. Melton, Thomas Gasser, Benjamin Poulter, Matthew W. Jones, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, David Sandoval, Paul B. Krummel, Etsushi Kato, Parvadha Suntharalingam, Catherine Morfopoulos, Hanqin Tian, Fangzhou Guo, Zutao Ouyang, Gabriel Baudoin
article en
4 citations

Abstract

Hydrogen (H<sub>2</sub>) will play a part in decarbonizing the global energy system<sup>1</sup>. However, hydrogen interacts with methane, ozone, and stratospheric water vapour, leading to an indirect 100-year global warming potential of 11 ± 4 (refs. <sup>2-5</sup>). This raises concerns about the climate consequences of increasing H<sub>2</sub> use under future hydrogen economies<sup>3,5</sup>. A comprehensive accounting of H<sub>2</sub> sources and sinks is essential for assessing changes and mitigating environmental risks. Here we analyse trends in global H<sub>2</sub> sources and sinks from 1990 to 2020 and construct a comprehensive budget for the decade 2010-2020. H<sub>2</sub> sources increased from 1990 to 2020, primarily because of the oxidation of methane and anthropogenic non-methane volatile organic compounds, biogenic nitrogen fixation, and leakage from H<sub>2</sub> production. Sinks also increased in response to rising atmospheric H<sub>2</sub>. Estimated global H<sub>2</sub> sources and sinks averaged 69.9 ± 9.4 Tg yr<sup>-1</sup> and 68.4 ± 18.1 Tg yr<sup>-1</sup>, respectively, for 2010-2020. Regionally, Africa and South America contained the largest sources and sinks of H<sub>2</sub>, whereas East Asia and North America contributed the most H<sub>2</sub> emissions from fossil fuel combustion. We estimate that rising atmospheric H<sub>2</sub> between 2010 and 2020 contributed to an increase in global surface air temperature (GSAT) of 0.02 ± 0.006 °C. GSAT impacts of changing atmospheric H<sub>2</sub> in future marker Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios are estimated to remain within 0.01-0.05 °C, depending on H<sub>2</sub> usage, leakage rates and CH<sub>4</sub> emissions that influence photochemical H<sub>2</sub> production.

NatureVol. 648(8094)
Boston College (US), NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research (US), University of East Anglia (GB), University of Technology Sydney (AU), University of Bern (CH), CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere (AU), Met Office (GB), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (FR), Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research (CH), Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JP), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (AT), Climate Central (US), Environment and Climate Change Canada (CA), École Polytechnique (FR), Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (US), University of Groningen (NL), University of Colorado Boulder (US), University of Aberdeen (GB), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (FR), University of Exeter (GB), University of Cambridge (GB), Cardiovascular Institute of the South (US), Commissariat à l'Énergie Atomique et aux Énergies Alternatives (FR), Université Paris-Saclay (FR), CICERO Center for International Climate Research (NO), Aerodyne Research (US), National Centre for Atmospheric Science (GB), CSIRO Scientific Computing (AU), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement (FR), CEA Paris-Saclay (FR), NSF NCAR Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory (US), Tyndall Centre (GB), Institute of Applied Energy (JP), Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry (DE), Imperial College London (GB), Ocean University of China (CN), Western Sydney University (AU), Auburn University (US), University of Oklahoma (US), Stanford University (US)
Openalex Percentile: Top 5%
Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
4.42
DOIOpen Access PDFOpenAlex
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