<i>2025 W.R. Whitney Award Lecture:</i> Life Prediction of Aging Systems Subject to Corrosion: Limit State Approaches and Challenges

Aging can be characterized as an increasing hazard rate with time, defined as the probability of failure at any time given that the system functioned reliably before that time. Hazard rate involves probabilities, but a purely statistical approach to evaluating aging is not sufficient for systems that have no prior failure history or that undergo various changes throughout their life. Mechanistic understanding of the underlying processes is critical. Corroding systems can fail in many different ways. This paper focuses on the use of limit states for modeling corrosion and predicting aging response. Examples of this approach for general corrosion are localized corrosion and stress corrosion cracking (SCC). A hybrid dynamic Bayesian network approach is used to characterize aging probability. Examples for general corrosion and SCC are shown.