Intensification of Compound Extremes Over India Under 1.5°C and 2°C Global Warming Levels: Insights From Bias‐Corrected CMIP6 Simulations

Abstract Compound climate extremes, where temperature and precipitation extremes occur together are increasing globally and pose growing risks to human and natural systems. India is already experiencing more frequent extreme weather events, underscoring the urgency of assessing how such events may evolve with continued warming. This study uses high‐resolution, statistically downscaled, and bias‐corrected CMIP6 climate projections from 30 different models to assess the future compound extremes such as Cold‐Dry (CD), Cold‐Wet (CW), Warm‐Dry (WD), and Warm‐Wet (WW) under 1.5°C and 2.0°C global warming levels for two future climate scenarios (SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5) during the pre‐monsoon season (March‐June). The projections indicate that cold‐related extremes (CD, CW) will become rare while warm‐related extremes (WD, WW) will increase significantly across India, with the largest changes emerging by the mid‐21st century across the West Central India (WCI), North East India (NEI), and Central North East India (CNEI). The occurrence of WD events has approximately doubled while WW events have increased nearly threefold across India during this season. Temperature increases, reinforced by land‐atmosphere coupling and thermodynamic constraints such as higher vapor pressure deficit and greater moisture holding capacity, intensify wet and dry extremes, while circulation‐driven precipitation changes play a lesser role. Population exposure to WD and WW events is projected to rise sharply, particularly in densely populated and climate‐sensitive regions. These findings highlight the need for targeted, region‐specific adaptation planning and risk‐informed decision‐making to manage the escalating risks from compound extremes in a warming climate.