Integrated Delphi-entropy framework for sustainable rural tourism: evidence from Shaanxi Province, China (2018–2023)

Purpose Rural tourism development evaluation requires comprehensive frameworks that integrate subjective expert knowledge with objective data characteristics. This study develops an innovative Delphi-entropy hybrid approach for sustainable rural tourism assessment. Methods We constructed a 30-indicator evaluation system across four dimensions (Innovation & Culture, Economy & Infrastructure, Eco-Environment, and Tourism & Livelihood) using two-round Delphi expert consultations and Shannon entropy weighting. The framework was applied to Shaanxi Province, China, using statistical yearbook data from 2018–2023. Results The integrated evaluation reveals a statistically significant U-shaped development trajectory (quadratic regression: β 2 = 0.013, p = 0.035; R 2 = 0.785), with comprehensive indices declining by 93.4% from 0.271 (2018) to 0.018 (2020) during the COVID-19 pandemic, followed by gradual recovery to 0.044 (2023). This decline magnitude substantially exceeds international averages (55%–85%). The exceptional severity reflects China-specific policy stringency during the zero-COVID period. Culture industry investment growth emerged as the highest-weighted indicator (25.1%). This reflects high discriminatory power and validates its theoretical significance for Shaanxi's heritage-based tourism model. Eco-environmental dimensions showed consistent improvement (scores from 0.72 to 0.89). Comprehensive sensitivity analysis confirms robustness: weight perturbations of ±30% maintain rank correlations >0.92, validating principal findings across alternative methodological assumptions. Implications The methodology provides a replicable framework for regional tourism assessment, supporting evidence-based policy formulation. Results indicate the critical importance of innovation investment and environmental sustainability in rural tourism resilience, with significant policy implications for post-pandemic recovery strategies. Originality This research contributes the first comprehensive Delphi-entropy integration for rural tourism evaluation, offering methodological innovations for multi-criteria decision-making in sustainable tourism development.