The predictive validity of PIRLS and ePIRLS on later academic achievement: Insights from Sweden,

The aim of this study was to investigate and compare how two reading assessments measured in Grade 4 predict later school grades. Specifically, the study explored how paper-based and digital reading scores were related to school grades in Grades 6 and 9. Data from the international assessment PIRLS 2016 and its digital counterpart ePIRLS 2016, along with Swedish register data were used. Regression results speak to the lasting effects of early reading achievement on later achievement in various subjects. Notably, digital test scores showed stronger associations with later grades, particularly in Grade 6. Although moderate in strength, the predictive validity of digital test scores was higher for subjects like English and mathematics, compared to paper-based test scores. These findings lend some credibility to the ongoing transition to digital assessment, indicating that digital reading measures may capture skills more relevant to later academic success. • This study links PIRLS and ePIRLS 2016 data with Swedish national register grades in Grades 6 and 9. • Both paper-based and digital Grade 4 reading scores predict later achievement in Swedish, English, mathematics, and GPA. • Digital reading scores (ePIRLS) show slightly stronger correlations and predictive validity than paper-based scores. • A digital reading advantage in Grade 4 predicts later performance across all core subjects in Grade 6, and specifically Swedish and English in Grade 9. • Differences in predictive strength between reading modes remain largely independent of gender, SES, and immigrant background.