Spatiotemporal Variations in Vegetation Phenology in the Qinling Mountains and Their Responses to Climate Variability

Understanding vegetation phenology responses to climate change is essential for predicting ecosystem dynamics, especially in mountainous transition zones, such as the Qinling Mountains, where climatic and ecological gradients are pronounced. To quantify these complex interactions, we combined high spatiotemporal resolution remote sensing data (30 m, 8-day) with CMFD climate datasets from 2010 to 2020. We leveraged a rigorous analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) framework to simultaneously test the spatial heterogeneity of phenological baselines and the temporal convergence of trends across vegetation types. Results revealed that the spatial pattern of the start of the growing season (SOS) exhibited highly significant heterogeneity (p < 0.001), primarily governed by vegetation composition and altitudinal gradients—a phenomenon we define as a spatial baseline constraint effect. In contrast, the interannual SOS trends (slopes) showed no significant differences among vegetation types (p = 0.685), indicating a temporal convergence effect. This regional synchrony, characterized by a consistent shift toward earlier SOS of approximately −0.8 to −0.9 days yr−1 at low and mid-elevations, was largely driven by rising spring temperatures (R2 ≈ 0.20). Crucially, the end of the growing season (EOS) displayed weak climatic sensitivity, revealing an asymmetric phenological response to temperature changes. Our findings demonstrate that vegetation phenology in the Qinling Mountains is jointly controlled by spatial baseline constraint and temporal trend convergence. This dual-mechanism framework provides new insights into the highly structured stability and resilience of mountainous ecosystems under regional warming.