Forecasting of the 2024 Spring Flood Characteristics of the Ishim, Tobol, and Ural Rivers

The Hydrometeorological Center of Russia developed some techniques for short-, medium-, and long-term forecasting of spring flood characteristics, which were implemented for eight cross-sections on the Ishim, Tobol, and Ural rivers in 2024. Based on a statistical analysis of hydrological observation data from 1985 to 2023, the peak flood, its date, and the dates of water level decline to the dangerous and adverse levels (two defence levels) were predicted with the help of the techniques. The forecasts were issued in deterministic and probabilistic forms and have satisfactory results, which were used in organizing and implementing measures to protect the population and economic facilities from extreme floods observed in 2024. The simplicity and effectiveness of the developed methods allow recommending these techniques in operational forecasting of flood characteristics in various regions of Russia.