Selection of Methods for Streamflow Forecasts

This paper examines selection of river flow forecasting methods based on factors limiting the lead time and accuracy of forecasts, end users’ requirements, and the results of applying these methods to specific water bodies. Methods that allow widespread automated implementation in operational use are recommended as the most effective. The paper gives some examples of successful implementation of these recommendations for river flow forecasting in Russia, based on methods developed at the Hydrometeorological Center of Russia. The proposed recommendations are aimed at improving the scientific validity and effectiveness of operational decisions regarding water resources use and protection against hazardous hydrological phenomena.