Short-term and Medium-term Forecasting of the Don Basin’s River Runoff

For the rivers of the Don basin, the Hydrometeorological Center of Russia has developed a methodology for daily short-term and medium-term forecasting of water discharges and levels. Average daily discharges and water levels are forecasted throughout the year with a lead time of 1 to 10 days based on the hydrograph extrapolation method, which takes into account their values for the date of the forecast issue and for the five previous days. To assess the parameters of the forecast scheme, hydrological observation data for each river gauge are used. The method yields quite satisfactory results and can be used within the framework of an automated system for preparing and issuing forecasts in order to provide necessary forecast information for operational decisions on the use of water resources of the Don basin’s rivers and the protection of the population from dangerous floods.