The Impact and Spatiotemporal Heterogeneity of Differentiated Industrial Land Supply Regarding Industrial Total Factor Productivity

Optimizing resource allocation is crucial for enhancing Total Factor Productivity (TFP). This study investigates the impact of differentiated industrial land supply (DILS) on industrial Total Factor Productivity (ITFP), a topic essential for optimizing territorial spatial layouts and promoting high-quality industrial development. Using panel data from 282 Chinese cities (2007–2021) and a Spatial Durbin Model (SDM), we analyze the spatiotemporal effects of this factor. The results indicate a weakening trend in DILS over time, with a spatial pattern of lower intensity in the east and higher intensity in the west, while ITFP shows an upward trend, with higher levels in the east. Nationally, increased DILS impedes ITFP growth, a finding with robust implications for alternative approaches. This impact demonstrates significant spatiotemporal heterogeneity: at the macro-scale, eastern China shows an inverted U-shape, while the central and western regions exhibit negative impacts. At the meso-scale, the Yangtze River Economic Belt shows negative effects, while the Yellow River Basin displays an inverted U-shape. At the micro-scale, major city clusters show varied relationships (inverted U-shaped, positive, or negative). We conclude that DILS generally hinders ITFP, with effects intensifying and varying significantly across narrowing spatial scales, underscoring the need for region-specific land policies to support high-quality industrial development. This study enriches our theoretical understanding of how resource allocation affects ITFP and provides practical guidance for optimizing industrial land use.