Climate-crop models to support opportunity crop adaptation in Africa
In an era marked by climatic uncertainties and burgeoning food security challenges, climate-crop models emerge as important tools for guiding investments in climate-resilient agriculture. Here, we construct climate-crop model applications for 24 crops spanning the African food basket, including cereals, legumes, oilseeds, roots/tubers, and vegetables, in support of the Vision for Adapted Crops & Soils (VACS) program. Notably, we expand the modeling framework for 19 "opportunity" crops that have hitherto been underrepresented or overlooked but hold potential to bolster agricultural resilience across the continent. We calibrate and parameterize our process-based models using field observations and comprehensive literature reviews. We evaluate the model outputs spatially and temporally against national crop statistics across Africa, showing acceptable reproduction of yields and response to reported extreme droughts and heat waves. This work offers a scalable framework for climate-crop modeling and impact assessments related to food security in Africa and beyond.
Authors
- Senthold Asseng (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7583-3811)
- Dilys S. MacCarthy (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8062-3499)
- Alex C. Ruane (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5582-9217)
- Cynthia Rosenzweig (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8541-2201)
- Bright S. Freduah (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4147-0485)
- Chuang Zhao (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9535-8181)
- Meijian Yang (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0704-7835)
- Jonas Jägermeyr (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8368-0018)
- Kevin Karl (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8916-5578)
- Andres Castellano
- Stephen Narh
- Jose Rafael Guarin (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3167-4329)
- Elena Mendez Leal
- Gershom O. Wesley (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0008-8316-2588)
Institutions
- Goddard Institute for Space Studies (US)
- University of Ghana (GH)
- Universidad Autónoma de Guerrero (MX)
- Leibniz Association (DE)
- Osservatorio Astronomico della Regione Autonoma Valle d'Aosta (IT)
- China Agricultural University (CN)
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (DE)
- Technical University of Munich (DE)
- Columbia University (US)
Publication Details
- Journal
- Nature Communications
- Published
- 2025-12-17
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-66180-2
- Citations
- 2
- Primary Topic
- Climate change impacts on agriculture
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 6.05
Funders
- National Aeronautics and Space Administration
- U.S. Department of State
- Earth Sciences Division
- Goddard Institute for Space Studies