Effects of housing purchase restriction policies on the urban settlement intentions of migrant populations

The urbanization of migrant populations is a crucial component of high-quality urban development, yet many migrants fail to achieve full settlement and social integration after entering cities. Housing purchase restriction policies, designed to curb speculative demand and stabilize prices, have unintentionally limited migrants' access to urban housing and may discourage permanent settlement. While previous studies have examined the overall impact of these policies, few have explored the specific effects of policy details or their micro-level implications for individual migrants. Moreover, although extensive research has identified various factors influencing migrants' settlement intentions-such as individual, family, and destination characteristics-these strands of research have tended to treat housing policies and public services separately. Limited attention has been paid to how restrictive housing policies interact with access to public services to jointly shape migrants' settlement decisions. Drawing on nationally representative data from the China Migrants Dynamic Survey (CMDS), housing purchase restriction policy documents from 278 cities, and city-level statistics, this study employs a logit model to examine how policy implementation and intensity affect migrants' intentions to settle in cities and how education and healthcare services moderate this relationship. The findings reveal that housing purchase restriction policies significantly reduce settlement intentions, and the negative effect intensifies with policy stringency. Higher education and children's educational opportunities partially mitigate this impact, but their moderating roles diminish in cities with stricter restrictions, while healthcare resources show no significant effect. These results highlight tensions between market regulation and social equity: policies that stabilize housing markets may inadvertently constrain migrants' settlement opportunities, undermining the goals of people-centered urbanization. The study suggests optimizing restrictive housing policies, promoting inclusive housing systems, and equalizing public service provision to balance market stability with social equity.