Presuming public support for international sanctions: the European Union versus Russia (2022)

This article examines public support for international sanctions imposed by the European Union (EU) against Russia in response to the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Using survey data from four Eurobarometer polls conducted in the first year of the conflict, the study investigates the extent to which these sanctions elicit a “rally around the flag” effect among EU citizens in the context of a perceived external threat. Three potential drivers of public support for sanctions are evaluated: security concerns, economic considerations, and humanitarian (moral) motivations. The findings show that while initial public support for the sanctions was strong, it declined over time as the economic and social costs of sanctions became more apparent. Contrary to expectations, security concerns show only modest associations with approval, whereas economic considerations and humanitarian/solidarity motives emerge as stronger correlates of sanction approval over time. These findings suggest that, in this period, EU citizens’ approval of sanctions was more strongly associated with a pragmatic desire to punish the aggressor and assist the victim state than with heightened fear or European identity.