Statistical study of the causes of acacia tree deterioration in the Ha’il region

Acacia trees are vital to arid ecosystems, yet their decline in the Ha'il region of Saudi Arabia poses significant ecological and socio-economic concerns. This study employs a comprehensive statistical approach to identify the environmental and human-induced factors contributing to this deterioration. Data were collected from structured surveys, meteorological records, and satellite imagery. Analytical methods included descriptive statistics, correlation analysis, regression modeling, and chi-square automatic interaction detection (CHAID) classification. Results show that climate change-particularly increased temperatures and erratic rainfall-along with soil degradation, overgrazing, and urban expansion, are key drivers of acacia decline. Regression analysis revealed that drought severity (B = 3.721, <i>p</i> = 0.023) and urban growth (B = 3.365, <i>p</i> = 0.045) significantly predicted deterioration, explaining 17.5% of the variance (adjusted R² = 0.175). The CHAID model identified urban expansion and overgrazing as critical risk factors, with deterioration scores ranging from 47.1 to 70.1 across subgroups. The study recommends strengthened conservation policies, improved irrigation, expanded protected areas, and increased public awareness to support acacia restoration efforts.