Blood-based biomarkers of Alzheimer’s disease and olfactory decline over 15 years in older adults

Olfactory impairment is common in older age and is a known early feature of several dementia diseases. Blood-based biomarkers of Alzheimer's disease (AD) now offer a scalable method for detecting pathophysiological mechanisms related to olfactory decline in the general population. However, few studies have examined how these biomarkers relate to long-term olfactory trajectories. Most existing work has been limited to cross-sectional settings. In this population-based study, we used biomarker data collected at baseline and followed participants for up to 15 years, enabling us to test whether early biological changes are temporally linked to subsequent olfactory decline. Data came from the ongoing Swedish National Study on Aging and Care in Kungsholmen (SNAC-K), a longitudinal population-based study with baseline assessments from March 21, 2001, through August 30, 2004. We included participants without prevalent neurodegenerative diseases who completed olfactory assessment at baseline. The 15-year follow-up was finished in December 2019. Data were analysed from December 2023 to April 2024. Serum-derived biomarkers of tau phosphorylated at threonine 217 (p-tau217) and at theorine181 (p-tau181), total tau (t-tau), amyloid-β ratio (Aβ42/Aβ40), neurofilament light chain (NfL), and glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP) were obtained at baseline. Linear mixed models examined associations between biomarker quartiles and Sniffin' Sticks odor identification performance over 15 years, adjusting for demographics, health conditions, and semantic knowledge. We included 1868 participants (mean [SD] age 71.3 [9.9] years; 1122 females [60.1%]). In fully adjusted models, higher quartiles of p-tau217, p-tau181, NfL, and GFAP, and lower quartiles of Aβ42/Aβ40, were associated with steeper olfactory decline, with the steepest decline among participants in the highest quartiles (β for Q4 vs Q1: -0.20 [95% CI: -0.26 to -0.15] for p-tau217; -0.19 [95% CI: -0.25 to -0.13] for p-tau181; -0.23 [95% CI: -0.29 to -0.17] for NfL; β = -0.17 [95% CI: -0.23 to -0.11] for GFAP. Participants in the lowest Aβ42/Aβ40 quartile declined more steeply than those in the highest (β = -0.09 [95% CI: -0.14 to -0.04]). Associations appeared stronger in the oldest participants, in APOE ε4 carriers for p-tau181, in non-carriers for NfL and GFAP, and among former smokers for NfL. Blood-based biomarkers of AD were consistently associated with faster olfactory decline in older adults, particularly in the highest biomarker quartiles. These results provide large-scale longitudinal evidence, across up to 15 years of follow-up, that olfactory decline in the general population is linked to AD-related blood biomarkers, supporting the hypothesis that common olfactory losses in ageing partly reflect dementia-related processes.