Digital-era governance: the influence of e-government, e-participation and internet engagement on social unrest

Purpose This study aims to investigate the complex and often paradoxical relationship between digital governance tools – specifically e-government, e-participation and general internet usage – and social unrest. It addresses a fundamental question in modern governance: Do these digital technologies mitigate or exacerbate social tensions and collective dissent? Design/methodology/approach Using a comprehensive unbalanced panel data set of over 165 countries (1990–2022), a multi-method approach was used to capture nuanced effects. This analysis combines traditional econometric techniques, including fixed effects and system generalized method of moments to address endogeneity, with machine learning algorithms such as random forest to capture nonlinear relationships. Short-term forms of unrest – anti-government demonstrations, strikes and riots – as well as longer-term structural pressures, including ethnic tensions, internal and external conflicts, revolutions and socioeconomic conditions were examined. Findings Internet access, e-government and e-participation are consistently associated with higher levels of anti-government demonstrations, strikes and riots, with effects especially pronounced in middle-income countries. Effects vary by tool adoption level and unrest type. E-government’s telecommunications infrastructure facilitates protest coordination, while its human capital dimension is associated with more strikes but fewer riots. Internet usage is linked to a higher risk of ethnic tensions and internal and external conflicts; yet, it also correlates with a reduction in illegal or forced political changes and an enhancement of socioeconomic conditions. E-government’s human capital and infrastructure also contribute to better socioeconomic conditions. No substantial evidence linking e-government or e-participation to increased risks of ethnic tensions or conflicts was found. Originality/value This study provides one of the first large-scale empirical analyses to bridge the literatures on digital governance and social unrest by applying both econometric and machine learning techniques. The findings highlight the dual-edged nature of digitalization: while it can empower civic engagement and improve socioeconomic conditions, it can also heighten certain forms of unrest.