Impact Mechanism and Effect Analysis of the Integration of Digital Economy and Real Economy on China’s Regional Low-Carbon Transitions

In the context of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, this study addresses how the integration of digital economy and real economy (IDRE) influences regional low-carbon transitions (RLCT). Such exploration enhances the high-quality evolution of China’s economic landscape and contributes insights to the worldwide efforts against climate change and sustainable progress. Through the entropy method, this investigation develops a comprehensive index to evaluate IDRE using provincial panel data spanning 2011 to 2022. A coupling coordination degree (CCD) model is used to evaluate the integration levels across China’s 30 provinces (including municipalities and autonomous regions). Moreover, this research employs a bidirectional fixed effect model, a mediation effect model, a threshold model, and a spatial econometric model to empirically probe the effects and underlying mechanisms of IDRE on RLCT. The key findings are as follows: (a) IDRE significantly promotes RLCT, particularly in eastern regions; (b) IDRE facilitates RLCT by enhancing green technological innovation and advancing new urbanization, though it exhibits nonlinear characteristics such as rebound effects and diminishing returns; and (c) IDRE generates significant spatial spillover effects on RLCT. This study reveals how IDRE promotes RLCT through green technological innovation (GTI), new urbanization (NUR) pathways, and spatial spillover effect.