War as a singular crisis? An analysis of the singularity and continuity of crises using the example of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine

When Russia launched its war of aggression against Ukraine on February 24, 2022, it was seen as a watershed moment in European history, dividing time into “before” and “after”. The German chancellor’s talk of a “turning point” (“Zeitenwende”) underscores the perception of this invasion as a singular crisis event. Its consequences were felt throughout Europe: in political debates, in support for Ukraine, and in the reception of numerous refugees. The force, suddenness, and violence of the attack, as well as the shock to the European peace order, argue for its classification as a singular crisis. Against this backdrop, in this text I analyse Russia’s war against Ukraine according to the criteria of a singular crisis as formulated by Kraemer and Steg (2025) in their essay. At the same time, however, I also consider the crisis from the theoretical perspective of Charles Tilly, who spent his life studying events that could be described as singular crises, but at the same time placed them in the context of a continuum of state formation and social and political change – which is obviously a contradiction. Using the example of Russia’s war against Ukraine, I analyse where singularity and normality or continuity of crises converge. I argue that the singular character of the crisis is strongly influenced by its spatial, temporal, and factual dimensions, which can blur the boundaries between crisis, normality, and ‘new normality’. Finally, I argue that crisis response and the concept of resilience are also contingent and need to be integrated in our understanding of singular crises.