Global, regional, and national burden of diabetes mellitus due to metabolic factors in young adults, 1990 to 2021 and predictions to 2040: An analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Diabetes mellitus due to metabolic factors is a significant global public health burden, showing an increasing trend among young adults aged 24 to 49 years. This group, who are at the peak of their career development and family obligations, has received limited research attention despite its critical role in societal development. This study aims to evaluate the global, regional, and national burden of diabetes mellitus due to metabolic factors in young adults from 1990 to 2021 and project trends to 2040, using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021, to inform targeted prevention and management strategies. Data for this study were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database spanning 1990 to 2021. The analysis focused on trends in mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and the estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) in disease burden were calculated over the study period. Future trends in disease burden up to 2040 were projected using the Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model. Frontier analysis was conducted to explore potential improvement opportunities and disparities across countries categorized by development level. The analyses were stratified by gender, 21 GBD regions, 204 nations/territories, and 5 SDI quintiles. Statistical analyses and plot illustrations were conducted using the R statistical package (version 4.4.2). The global burden of diabetes mellitus due to metabolic factors exhibits significant regional variations, which are closely linked to sociodemographic index (SDI) levels. The age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) declined, while the age-standardized disability rate (ASDR) increased from 1990 to 2021. The BAPC model predicts an increasing burden of mortality and DALYs over the next 2 decades. Meanwhile, frontier analysis reveals substantial room for improvement across all levels of development. Management of metabolic factors remains a major challenge for young people with diabetes mellitus, and targeted clinical guidelines are needed.