Quantifying the societal impact of disease‐modifying therapies in Alzheimer's disease: a cost savings‐based approach

Abstract INTRODUCTION Quantifying the societal value of costly Alzheimer's disease‐modifying therapies (DMTs) remains challenging. We propose an interpretable algebraic model to estimate the “breakeven time” at which direct cost savings from slowed cognitive decline offset drug costs. METHODS Our model links Mini‐Mental State Examination (MMSE) progression (from ADNI study) to medical and nursing care costs (from GERAS studies). We calculated breakeven times for two distinct treatment paradigms: continuous‐duration and limited‐duration dosing. RESULTS The economic feasibility of DMTs was largely dependent on the treatment paradigm. For continuous‐duration, the breakeven time exceeded unfeasible 10 to 20 years. In contrast, limited‐duration (18 months) greatly shortened the breakeven time to more plausible 5‐ to 10‐year horizon for many settings. CONCLUSION While the proposed model offers a novel framework, the lengthy and conditional nature of the breakeven point suggests the limitations of relying solely on medical and nursing care cost savings to evaluate the societal impact of DMTs.