Tourism Resilience and Adaptive Recovery in an Island’s Economy: Evidence from the Maldives

This study investigates the resilience dynamics of the Maldives’ tourism sector through a longitudinal analysis of tourist arrivals from six global regions (2008–2024), focusing on spatiotemporal behavioral shifts induced by external shocks such as the COVID-19 pandemic. Using ANOVA and time-series data, the findings reveal divergent recovery trajectories across regions, highlighting resilience as a differentiated and adaptive process. European markets exhibited a rapid, V-shaped rebound, surpassing pre-pandemic levels by 2022, reflecting the “One Island, One Resort” model’s alignment with post-crisis preferences for safety, isolation, and controlled environments. Conversely, Asian markets experienced a more gradual, L-shaped recovery due to extended mobility restrictions and slower border reopening. The analysis further demonstrates that tourism seasonality has been structurally reconfigured, with European arrivals still driven by climatic “push” factors (winter-sun demand). In contrast, Middle Eastern travel is anchored in cultural and religious “pull” factors, such as halal tourism and school vacations. These findings emphasize that tourism resilience is spatially, temporally, and behaviorally contingent, rather than uniform. Accordingly, policymakers should move beyond one-size-fits-all recovery models and implement spatially targeted, adaptive strategies, including customized marketing, diversified tourism offerings, and crisis-ready governance frameworks, to mitigate seasonality and reinforce the Maldives’ long-term capacity to withstand future shocks.