Air Pollutant Concentration Prediction Using a Generative Adversarial Network with Multi-Scale Convolutional Long Short-Term Memory and Enhanced U-Net

Accurate prediction of air pollutant concentrations, particularly fine particulate matter (PM2.5), is essential for controlling and preventing heavy pollution incidents by providing early warnings of harmful substances in the atmosphere. This study proposes a novel spatiotemporal model for PM2.5 concentration prediction based on a Conditional Wasserstein Generative Adversarial Network with Gradient Penalty (CWGAN-GP). The framework incorporates three key design components: First, the generator employs an Inception-style Convolutional Long Short-Term Memory (ConvLSTM) network, integrating parallel multi-scale convolutions and hierarchical normalization. This design enhances multi-scale spatiotemporal feature extraction while effectively suppressing boundary artifacts via a map-masking layer. Second, the discriminator adopts an architecturally enhanced U-Net, incorporating spectral normalization and shallow instance normalization. Feature-guided masked skip connections are introduced, and the output is designed as a raw score map to mitigate premature saturation during training. Third, a composite loss function is utilized, combining adversarial loss, feature-matching loss, and inter-frame spatiotemporal smoothness. A sliding-window conditioning mechanism is also implemented, leveraging multi-level features from the discriminator for joint spatiotemporal optimization. Experiments conducted on multi-source gridded data from Dongguan demonstrate that the model achieves a 12 h prediction performance with a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 4.61 μg/m3, a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 6.42 μg/m3, and a Coefficient of Determination (R2) of 0.80. The model significantly alleviates performance degradation in long-term predictions when the forecast horizon is extended from 3 to 12 h, the RMSE increases by only 1.84 μg/m3, and regional deviations remain within ±3 μg/m3. These results indicate strong capabilities in spatial topology reconstruction and robustness against concentration anomalies, highlighting the model’s potential for hyperlocal air quality early warning. It should be noted that the empirical validation is limited to the specific environmental conditions of Dongguan, and the model’s generalizability to other geographical and climatic settings requires further investigation.