An Analysis of the U.S. 2024 Polls

In 2024, for the third U.S. Presidential election in a row, the polls under-predicted Donald Trump’s performance. In 2016, Trump won a surprising victory, winning several midwestern states he was tabbed to lose. In 2020, Trump lost by a surprisingly close margin in an election he was supposed to lose badly. In 2024, the polls pointed to a narrow loss by Trump, when he won by a narrow margin. In an analysis of the polls of 2020 in this journal [1], I showed that the miscall of the 2020 election could be attributed to (1) polls that were too rich in Democrats, (2) Shy Trumpers and (3) poll-specific bias. In this paper, I look at the polls of 2024.