Returning to Poverty due to Unequal Opportunities in China: The Key Influencing Factors and Mitigation Policies

ABSTRACT Against the backdrop of global commitments to Sustainable Development Goal 1 (No Poverty) and Sustainable Development Goal 10 (Reduced Inequalities), this study investigates the intrinsic connection between poverty relapse and unequal opportunities in China. A multi‐agent model based on Chinese data is used to simulate 30 years of dynamic change. Seven simulation scenarios are constructed, and the results reveal that as the level of opportunity inequality increases, the population falling back into poverty shows continuous growth. Individual efforts can alleviate the pressure of returning to poverty, but the long‐term effect is limited, as the poverty headcount rises again during the latter 20 years of the simulation. In contrast, the poverty reduction effect of improving educational levels is more sustainable. Among the uncontrollable individual factors, the ecological degradation of the place of birth has the strongest driving effect on poverty relapse. When the ecological environment quality of the birthplace deteriorates, the standardized value of the total number of the poor population reaches 2034 at the highest, while the average value of 30 simulation cycles is 67.8. These findings challenge the prevailing perspective that individual effort is the primary driver of poverty alleviation. Moreover, among numerous influencing factors, this study identifies the constraining role of the ecological environment and the enabling role of high‐quality education in shaping opportunity inequality and poverty recurrence. Based on the research conclusions and policy recommendations, this article provides path support for poverty eradication in developing countries.