Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Mesoscale Convective Systems Over East Asian Monsoon Region Simulated by a Convection‐Permitting Model

Abstract Mesoscale convective system (MCS) is a major contributor to extreme precipitation over East Asia, but their long‐term trends remain insufficiently understood. Here, we assess the capability of the weather research and forecasting model, configured as a convection‐permitting model (CPM) to simulate MCS characteristics and 23‐year trends over East Asian monsoon region from 2001 to 2023 (June–September) by comparing with high‐resolution observational data. We employed an MCS tracking method PyFLEXTRKR, which can identify and track MCSs based on precipitation and brightness temperature. The CPM effectively captures key MCS characteristics, including lifetime, lifecycle total precipitation amount, and movement speed. However, it also has systematic biases: the model underestimates MCS size and meso‐ α MCS frequency while overestimating meso‐ β MCS occurrence and both mean and maximum MCSs precipitation intensities. Despite these biases, the model captures increasing (decreasing) trends in total and MCS precipitation over Manchuria and eastern China (Taiwan). In contrast, it struggles to reproduce observed total and MCS precipitation trends over North China Plain (NCP) and the Korean Peninsula (KP). These biases stem from the model's inability to capture enhanced moisture transport into East Asia, resulting in an underestimation of low‐level moisture over NCP and KP, as indicated by trends in vertically integrated moisture flux and 850 hPa specific humidity. By characterizing systematic and regional model biases, this study lays the groundwork for more reliable CPM‐based assessments of MCS responses to climate variability and change.

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Journal
Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres
Published
2025-12-14
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1029/2025jd044820
Primary Topic
Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
Type
article
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article

Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Mesoscale Convective Systems Over East Asian Monsoon Region Simulated by a Convection‐Permitting Model

Seok‐Woo Son, Myong‐In Lee, Junseo Park, Seung‐Ki Min et al.
Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres
Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
article

Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Mesoscale Convective Systems Over East Asian Monsoon Region Simulated by a Convection‐Permitting Model

Seok‐Woo Son, Myong‐In Lee, Junseo Park, Seung‐Ki Min, Haerin Park, Dong‐Hyun Cha, Taeho Mun
article en

Abstract

Abstract Mesoscale convective system (MCS) is a major contributor to extreme precipitation over East Asia, but their long‐term trends remain insufficiently understood. Here, we assess the capability of the weather research and forecasting model, configured as a convection‐permitting model (CPM) to simulate MCS characteristics and 23‐year trends over East Asian monsoon region from 2001 to 2023 (June–September) by comparing with high‐resolution observational data. We employed an MCS tracking method PyFLEXTRKR, which can identify and track MCSs based on precipitation and brightness temperature. The CPM effectively captures key MCS characteristics, including lifetime, lifecycle total precipitation amount, and movement speed. However, it also has systematic biases: the model underestimates MCS size and meso‐ α MCS frequency while overestimating meso‐ β MCS occurrence and both mean and maximum MCSs precipitation intensities. Despite these biases, the model captures increasing (decreasing) trends in total and MCS precipitation over Manchuria and eastern China (Taiwan). In contrast, it struggles to reproduce observed total and MCS precipitation trends over North China Plain (NCP) and the Korean Peninsula (KP). These biases stem from the model's inability to capture enhanced moisture transport into East Asia, resulting in an underestimation of low‐level moisture over NCP and KP, as indicated by trends in vertically integrated moisture flux and 850 hPa specific humidity. By characterizing systematic and regional model biases, this study lays the groundwork for more reliable CPM‐based assessments of MCS responses to climate variability and change.

Journal of Geophysical Research AtmospheresVol. 130(24)
Pohang University of Science and Technology (KR), Seoul National University (KR), Yonsei University (KR), Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology (KR)
Openalex Percentile: Top 56%
Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
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