Spatiotemporal evolution and analysis of influencing factors of low-carbon economy in China’s Yangtze River Delta based on nighttime light remote sensing data

The development of a low-carbon economy is essential for current economic growth. To gain a comprehensive understanding of the spatiotemporal evolution of low-carbon economy development in China's Yangtze River Delta and to clarify its influencing factors, this research employs spatial analysis methods such as kernel density estimation, Moran's I, spatial Markov chains, and the spatiotemporal geographically weighted regression model. The study draws the following conclusions: (1) The overall development of the low-carbon economy in the region is improving, though there are notable spatial and temporal differences between cities. In recent years, the number of cities with high levels of low-carbon development has steadily increased, yet provincial disparities remain, with Anhui Province facing the most prominent development challenges. (2) Low-carbon economy development in the Yangtze River Delta shows clear spatial clustering and migration patterns. The number of cities in a low-low agglomeration state remains stable, while the number of high-high agglomeration cities has slightly decreased. Spatially, cities with high-high agglomeration are concentrated in the eastern part of the region, while low-low agglomeration is mainly found in the west. (3) Various factors influence the development of the low-carbon economy in the Yangtze River Delta. The average regression coefficients for industrial upgrading, government intervention, technological advancement, education, and economic development are all positive, the effect of human capital shows stage-specific characteristics.