Effects of ungulate browsing on forest assisted migration strategies to conserve ecosystem function

Forest managers recognize that proactive management strategies, such as forest assisted migration (FAM) of tree species, intended to accelerate the pace of forest adaptation, may be necessary to maintain resilient forests and combat the stressors of climate change. However, the impact of interactions between climate change and ungulate browsers of trees, both of which have profound effects on the landscape, on the success of FAM efforts is unknown. We used a forest landscape model (LANDIS-II) to simulate assisted migration and browsing by ungulate (white-tailed deer [Odocoileus virginianus]) populations on a northern Wisconsin (USA) landscape under alternate climate futures. After accounting for effects of FAM strategy and climate change scenario, simulated ungulate browsing reduced species richness and the proportion of the landscape with tree species preferred by browsers and resulted in more of the landscape developing into novel forest communities that supported fewer ecosystem goods and services. Our results suggest that managers may need to select FAM species less preferred by ungulates or use seedling protection measures to mitigate the negative effects of chronically high ungulate populations in efforts to transition future forests to sustain ecosystem goods and services.