Global, regional, and national epidemiology of cervical cancer in elderly women from 1990 to 2021 and its prediction to 2035

Cervical cancer among elderly women poses a significant challenge to the elimination of cervical cancer. This study estimated the burden, trends, and disparities of cervical cancer in women aged ≥ 60 years from 1990 to 2021, with projections extending to 2035 at global, regional, and national levels. Deriving data from Global Burden of Disease Study 2021, we analyzed the incidence, prevalence, and mortality burden of cervical cancer among women aged ≥ 60 years. The average annual percent change calculated by Joinpoint regression analysis was used to demonstrate the temporal trend during 1990–2021. We utilized Spearman correlation analysis to explore relationship between age-standardized rates and socio-demographic index (SDI). A Bayesian age-period-cohort model was applied to forecast burden up to 2035. P < 0.05 was considered statistically significant. In 2021, the global age-standardized incidence, prevalence, and mortality rates of cervical cancer among women aged over 60 years were 33.84, 94.02, and 23.87 per 100,000 population, respectively. The proportion of deaths among seniors with cervical cancer relative to the total number of cervical cancer cases steadily increased, rising from 42% in 1990 to over 47% in 2021. The overall age-standardized rate decreased with rising SDI. The most significant declines in incidence and mortality rates were seen in Australasia, while substantial increases were found in Southern Sub-Saharan Africa. By 2035, the number of deaths among seniors is projected to reach 176,000, increasing from 139,800 in 2021, with age-standardized mortality rate of 20.3 per 100,000 population in 2035. The age-standardized prevalence rate will rise to 103.85 per 100,000 population, while incidence and mortality rates are predicted to continue declining. This study is the first to analyze the burden of cervical cancer among elderly women by using age-specific epidemiological data from the GBD 2021. It highlights the increasing disease burden and significant socioeconomic disparities in this population, warranting further investigation. Policymakers and healthcare providers should prioritize the needs of seniors to combat cervical cancer.