Incentives for dwelling renovations: evidence from a large fiscal programme

Abstract We use counterfactual analysis to evaluate the economic impact of two tax credits for dwelling renovations (‘Bonus Facciate’ / facades bonus and ‘Superbonus 110%’), which were introduced in Italy in the second half of 2020 and led to expenditures amounting to about 3 per cent of GDP per year. Using the synthetic control method, we estimate that the deadweight loss – that is, the share of public expenditure on the programme that financed projects that would have been undertaken even without these incentives – is more than 25 per cent. The implied fiscal multiplier is slightly below 1, a figure lower than the ones associated with public investments in standard macroeconomic models or estimated for green investments. Input–output analysis shows that the incentives are responsible for the entire growth in value added in the construction sector between 2019 and 2023, while their effects on other sectors are more limited.