The impact of economic growth on forest fragmentation: Evidence from Chinese counties

• Economic growth shows divergent paths: a U-shaped forest fragmentation EKC in high-income counties versus an inverted U-shaped EKC in low-income counties. • A synthesized "Labor–Energy–Land" framework integrates Forest Transition theories to explain underlying mechanisms. • Labor migration, energy transition and agricultural intensification positively moderated the impact of economic growth on forest fragmentation. • An endogenous threshold model ensures group homogeneity, substantially improving the reliability of EKC estimation. Forest fragmentation threatens forest ecosystems and sustainable development across the globe. While the relationship between economic growth and aggregate forest cover has been extensively studied under the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) framework, the impact of economic development on the spatial configuration of forests – specifically forest fragmentation – remains underexplored. Therefore, the EKC framework was used in this study to investigate the nonlinear relationship and moderating mechanisms between economic growth and forest fragmentation. This study used county-level data in China from 2000 to 2020 as samples and adopted high-resolution remote sensing data and panel threshold regression models. Empirical results showed threefold findings. First, high-income group counties showed a U-shaped EKC relationship for forest fragmentation, while low-income group counties showed an inverted U-shaped EKC relationship. Second, labor migration, energy transition and agricultural intensification positively moderated the impact of economic growth on forest fragmentation. Third, the moderating effects were more significant in low-income group, compared to high-income group. This study provided theoretical explanations and empirical support for the impact of economic growth on forest fragmentation and underlying mechanisms.