Does a Falling Agricultural Share in <scp>GDP</scp> Affect Environmental Outcomes in the Long Run? An Ecological Deficit–Based Robust Analysis

ABSTRACT A considerable vacuum in the literature exists regarding empirical evaluations of the link between agricultural growth and environmental concerns in India. Although several studies address this problem, they often present a narrow view by focusing on carbon emissions. The main contribution of this work is the use of the ecological deficit as a broad indicator, which had previously not been investigated in the Indian agricultural setting to assess environmental repercussions. Such an approach allows for a more in‐depth comparison with greenhouse gas emissions and provides a more nuanced view of agricultural development's sustainability. By utlizing annual data from 1990 to 2019 and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag model, the findings show that agricultural development has a negative impact on environmental outcomes, implying that a declining share of agricultural GDP is harmful to environmental well‐being. These results underline the agriculture sector's vital role in reducing environmental deterioration, as well as the importance of improving India's performance in the Environmental Performance Index 2022. To realize the sector's carbon sequestration potential and improve environmental performance, it is critical to promote sustainable agriculture methods such as organic farming, micro‐irrigation, and renewable energy production. A version of this abstract was previously published in the proceedings of [International Summit Scientific Research Congress, Turkiye, 2024] https://www.gapzirvesi.org/_files/ugd/614b1f_fc7851ac06414bd3a07132647afd3463.pdf .