Multi‐Criteria Analysis of Climate Change in the European Union Countries, Including Projections to 2040

ABSTRACT This paper proposes the author's method for assessing climate change in EU countries based on a set of key indicators and the construction of a synthetic index. This study employs multivariate comparative analysis (MCA) to compare things like countries. It is ideal for examining complex phenomena with various variables. Taxonomy is used in multivariate comparative studies. The climate change index presented next was created using the linear ordering taxonomic technique. The scope of the research covered 27 EU countries (as of 01.10.2024), for which a database was created for two comparative periods: 1981–2010 and 2011–2040. This paper attempts to answer the following questions: (1) Which EU countries are characterised by the greatest climate change over the periods studied and in which countries is the process progressing more slowly? (2) Given projections up to 2040, what is the future of the EU countries in terms of climate change? (3) What challenges do individual countries face? The average value of the index (climate change index) between 1981 and 2010 is 0.2882. Between 2011 and 2040, the projected average value of the CCI was 0.2350, indicating that climate change processes in EU countries are expected to slow down slightly. Climate threats will increase in Malta, Lithuania, Portugal, Latvia, Spain and Greece when the two time periods are compared. On the other side, synthetic climate change indexes are expected to improve in Ireland, the Netherlands, the Czech Republic, Germany and Poland.