Investigating the impact of Islamic bank sukuk profitability on Jordanian capital expenditure under the moderating role of GDP from 2017 to 2024

This study aims to examine the impact of Sukuk profitability of Islamic banks on capital expenditure in the Jordanian general budget during the period 2017–2024. It relies on a conceptual model that links Islamic Sukuk profitability (as an independent variable) to capital expenditure in the Jordanian general budget (as a dependent variable), while considering the gross domestic product (GDP) (as a moderating variable). This study adopts a quantitative approach and relies on secondary data. The study population consists of all banks accredited by the Central Bank of Jordan (20 Banks), and the study sample consisted of Islamic banks in Jordan (Jordan Islamic Bank, Islamic International Arab Bank, and Safwa Islamic Bank), excluding Al Rajhi Bank, which was considered a foreign institution based in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. After collecting data statistically analyzed using SPSS and PLS-Smart. The results revealed a positive and significant relationship between the profitability of Islamic sukuk in Islamic banks and capital expenditure in Jordan, with GDP playing a moderating role in strengthening this relationship. This study offers important implications, providing valuable insights for stakeholders in the fields of Islamic finance and public sector development, and this study contributes to the academic literature on Islamic finance and public spending by providing an empirical test of the predictions made by Islamic finance theory, public expenditure theory, and financial sustainability theory. The most recommendations were that the government, in collaboration with the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank of Jordan, promote the issuance of sovereign sukuk to finance infrastructure and development projects, this will provide a fair option based on Sharia principles and sustainability, replacing traditional debt funds to bridge fiscal deficits, while attracting investments from Islamic financial institutions. Regarding future research, the sectoral impact of sukuk-financed projects could be an area for future research. These could include the transportation, education, and healthcare sectors. In this way, it will be assessed which sectors generate relatively greater benefits from investments through sukuk. Researchers may conduct comparative analyses between Jordan and other countries in the region to examine how institutional, regulatory, and economic differences affect the effectiveness of sukuk in supporting public investment. Future studies may also evaluate the impact of emerging sukuk structures (such as green sukuk and ESG sukuk) on sustainable development goals and financial sustainability.