Forged in Crises

The evolution of Sino-Belarusian relations has acquired considerable geopolitical significance since the launch of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in 2013 and the formal establishment of a strategic partnership between the two states. This analysis seeks to demonstrate that during the COVID-19 pandemic, Sino-Belarusian relations gained a new momentum, with the global health crisis serving as a catalyst for the convergence of legitimacy claims between the two authoritarian regimes. This convergence is rooted in a shared foundational myth centered on World War II, ideological opposition to the West, personalist leadership structures, and China’s demonstrative performance in global affairs. The impact of these dynamics has persisted beyond the Belarusian political crisis of 2020 and the Russian war in Ukraine. Although Russia’s support is pivotal for ensuring the continuity of the Belarusian regime, this study argues that, unlike the Kremlin—which is perceived as a vestige of Belarusian dependencies and obligations—China provides the Lukashenko regime with a platform for “expansive” legitimacy. The findings contribute to the broader scholarly discourse on the international dimension of authoritarian legitimacy by demonstrating how China strategically expands its political influence over smaller autocratic states, not only reinforcing their legitimacy but also leveraging them as instruments to challenge Western hegemony in global politics.