A Node-Place-Accessibility-Ridership-per-Time Model to Evaluate Micromobility-friendly Transit-Oriented Development Potential in the Hauts-de-France Region

This study investigates the development potential of station areas in the Hauts-de-France region through an extended version of the Node-Place Model (NPM), aiming to support micromobility-friendly Transit-Oriented Development (TOD) strategies. We introduce the Node-Place-Accessibility-Ridership-Time (NPART) model, a multi-criteria framework that captures the interplay between public transport provision and the socio-economic, spatial, and functional characteristics of station environments. The model incorporates advanced geostatistical analysis and machine learning tools. NPART advances the original NPM framework through four major extensions: (i) a novel application in a polycentric and under-researched region; (ii) the integration of design quality and dynamic ridership data; (iii) a differentiated analysis of walk-and-ride and bike-and-ride station areas; and (iv) the development of a spatial typology based on accessibility and intermodal potential. Our findings highlight the ability of the model to reveal hidden development opportunities, especially in intermediate station areas. A typology of rail-served zones was established, distinguishing three classes: rail-oriented, adjacent activity, and car-centered areas. Half of the stations fall into the intermediate category, showing promising potential for M-TOD initiatives supported by walking and cycling. The NPART model demonstrates strong potential as a planning support tool for regional authorities. By identifying spatial disparities in multimodal accessibility, it provides actionable insights for refining TOD strategies and prioritizing investment. This contribution is particularly relevant in the French context, where quantitative TOD and M-TOD assessments remain rare despite pressing sustainability goals.