Early-Cycle Lifetime Prediction of LFP Batteries Using a Semi-Empirical Model and Chaotic Musical-Chairs Optimization

Efficiently predicting the lifespan of lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries early in their operational life is critical to accelerating the development of energy storage systems while reducing testing time, cost, and resource consumption. Traditional degradation models rely on full-cycle testing to estimate long-term performance, which is both time- and resource-intensive. This study proposes a novel semi-empirical degradation model that leverages a small fraction of early-cycle data with just 5% to accurately forecast full-lifetime performance with high accuracy, with less than 1.5% mean absolute percentage error. The model integrates fundamental degradation physics with data-driven calibration, using an improved musical chairs algorithm modified with chaotic map dynamics to optimize model parameters efficiently. Trained and validated on a diverse dataset of 27 LFP cells cycled under varying depths of discharge, current rates, and temperatures, the proposed method demonstrates superior convergence speed, robustness across LFP operating conditions, and predictive accuracy compared to traditional approaches. These results provide a scalable framework for rapid battery evaluation and deployment, supporting advances in electric mobility and grid-scale storage.