Carbon Peaking Pathways of High-Density Urban Buildings Under Dual-Control Policies: The Case of Guangzhou

High-density cities face increasing pressure to curb the rapid growth of building-sector carbon emissions, yet the specific impacts of China’s dual-control policy—regulating both total emissions and emission intensity—remain insufficiently understood. To address this gap, this study aims to quantify how dual-control constraints shape urban building-emission trajectories by developing a dynamic scenario model that integrates both operational and embodied emissions while accounting for technological progress, energy-structure adjustments, and socioeconomic change. The model is applied to Guangzhou, a representative high-density metropolis in China’s low-carbon transition. Three policy scenarios are evaluated: a baseline pathway reflecting existing trends, an energy-conservation pathway emphasizing efficiency improvements, and a deep-decarbonization pathway that combines enhanced efficiency with accelerated clean-energy adoption. The results show that rising residential energy demand is the primary driver of emission growth, whereas technological advancement provides the strongest mitigation potential. Under the energy-conservation scenario, emissions are projected to peak around 2029, consistent with China’s national carbon-peaking target for 2030. Overall, the findings offer clear empirical evidence and actionable policy insights for accelerating urban decarbonization in high-density contexts under dual-control constraints.