Dairy farming and climate parameters: an analysis of high productivity milk-producing cities in Minas Gerais, the leading dairy state in Brazil

Brazil is the world's fifth largest milk producer, and Minas Gerais is the leading milk-producing state. Most of the state production comes from small and medium-sized family farms, and only a small number of cities have high productivity metrics. The current climate change scenario poses technical challenges to milk production, affecting the health and the productivity of the cattle. Here we evaluated dairy farming in Minas Gerais state, considering productivity and official climatic data. We analyzed official data from different government databases, and among the 853 cities, 12 were classified as high-production cities (>80,000 L/year), of which six had complete climatic records. Pompéu emerged as the top producer with high precipitation rates, whereas Patos de Minas showed the highest precipitation, with irregular distribution. Using quadratic polynomial regression, we found that precipitation significantly influenced production (R²=0.8993, p=0.0076). Temperature alone had a negligible effect (R²=0.1995, p=0.7174). Principal Component Analysis identified distinct climatic patterns among the cities, with January and December being the wettest periods. Notably, high-productivity areas maintained moderate temperatures (21-23°C) and lower animal densities (km²). Our data open doors for further investigation into the interplay between climatic changes and zootechnical parameters of interest in milk production.