Climate change threatens stability conferred by asynchronous coastwide recruitment of Atlantic striped bass, Morone saxatilis

Contemporary fishery management approaches do not fully account for the spatial structuring evident in many populations. Yet, synchrony in recruitment among intrapopulation components may afford insights on population productivity and inform future management efforts. The coastal population of Atlantic striped bass ( Morone saxatilis ) is comprised of individuals from multiple distinct estuarine nurseries along the east coast of the United States, including Chesapeake Bay, Delaware River, and the Hudson River. The relative contribution of each producing area to the coastal population fluctuates annually, but the link between variable regional recruitment and the dynamics of the coastal population remains unexplored. Fishery-independent catch data of age-0 striped bass were used to generate time series of recruitment from each producing area from 1983 to 2021. Dynamic factor analysis was applied to identify common trends and the level of synchrony in recruitments, and investigate biotic and abiotic factors hypothesized to impact year-class strength and production in this species. Time series of recruitments were best represented by multiple common trends, highlighting asynchronous patterns in recruitment from individual producing areas. Two climate signals, the winter index of the North Atlantic Oscillation and marine heatwaves in the coastal ocean, had the largest impact on the observed patterns in recruitment. Differential production among individual producing areas may have conferred historical stability to the coastal population, but shared responses to broad scale stressors may indicate reduced resilience to climate impacts. • Assessed synchrony in recruitment among major striped bass producing areas. • Patterns in 39 years of recruitment best represented by multiple common trends. • Estuarine nursery areas exhibited unique patterns of productivity. • Climate drivers influenced coastwide recruitment more than adult biomass. • Marine heatwaves identified as a novel stressor for Atlantic striped bass.