Tri-Level Adversarial Robust Optimization for Cyber–Physical–Economic Scheduling: Multi-Stage Defense Coordination and Risk–Reward Equilibrium in Smart Grids

This study develops a tri-level adversarial robust optimization framework for cyber–physical scheduling in smart grids, addressing the intertwined challenges of coordinated cyberattacks, defensive resource allocation, and stochastic operational uncertainties. The upper level represents the attacker’s objective to maximize system disruption and conceal detection, the middle level models the defender’s optimization of detection and redundancy deployment under budgetary constraints, and the lower level performs economic dispatch given tampered data and uncertain renewable generation. The model integrates Distributionally Robust Optimization (DRO) based on a Wasserstein ambiguity set to safeguard against worst-case probability distributions, ensuring operational stability even under unobserved adversarial scenarios. A hierarchical reformulation using Karush–Kuhn–Tucker (KKT) conditions and Mixed-Integer Second-Order Cone Programming (MISOCP) transformation converts the nonconvex tri-level problem into a tractable bilevel surrogate solvable through alternating direction optimization. Numerical case studies on multi-node systems demonstrate that the proposed method reduces system loss by up to 36% compared to conventional stochastic scheduling, while maintaining 92% dispatch efficiency under high-severity attack scenarios. The results further reveal that adaptive defense allocation accelerates robustness convergence by over 50%, and that the risk–reward frontier stabilizes near a Pareto-optimal equilibrium between cost and resilience. This work provides a unified theoretical and computational foundation for adversarially resilient smart grid operation, bridging cyber-defense strategy, uncertainty quantification, and real-time economic scheduling into one coherent optimization paradigm.