Response and mechanisms of sub-daily precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau to regional climate change

Tibetan Plateau (TP) is a sensitive region of climate change, with its precipitation change attracting considerable scientific attention. This study couples dynamical downscaling simulation with the storyline attribution approach to investigate the impact of regional climate change over East Asia (RCC) and TP (PCC) on the sub-daily precipitation over TP. RCC significantly reduces overall precipitation, mainly through decreased morning and stratiform precipitation, but enhances afternoon precipitation by increasing convective precipitation. Furthermore, RCC reduces the precipitation frequency and precipitation intensity, most substantially for morning stratiform precipitation. PCC exerts smaller and less statistically significant impact on precipitation than RCC. The opposing morning–afternoon effects of RCC stem from differing physical mechanisms: RCC stabilizes the atmosphere and reduces moisture in the morning, suppressing convection, while it enhances instability, moisture, and convective energy in the afternoon. Regional differences in RCC-induced precipitation changes are attributed to variations in moisture flux and atmospheric dynamics.