Spatial effects of digitalization on carbon dioxide emissions: Empirical evidence from city-level data in China

Urban digital development plays a pivotal role in achieving carbon mitigation and advancing environmental sustainability. While existing studies have begun to examine the relationship between digitalization and carbon dioxide emissions, discussions regarding how urban digitalization influences carbon dioxide emissions under multi-dimensional conditions remain limited. In particular, there is a need for further exploration of specific dimensions such as digital governance, digital innovation, digital industrialization, digital infrastructure, and digital finance. Therefore, this study employs the Spatial Durbin Model (SDM) and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) to investigate the spatial effects of urban digitalization on carbon dioxide emissions. The analysis utilizes cross-sectional data from 245 prefecture-level cities in China for the years 2015 and 2020. The results indicate the following: (1) In comparison to 2015, the influence of urban digitalization on carbon dioxide emission reduction weakened by 2020 and exhibited a diffusion effect toward surrounding regions, demonstrating a spatial distribution trend that decreases from north to south; (2) The internal dimensions of urban digitalization, such as digital governance, innovation, infrastructure, industrialization, and finance, exhibit geographical spatial heterogeneity in their impact on carbon dioxide emissions. (3) Digital governance has exhibited a transformative impact on carbon dioxide emissions. In 2015, digital governance was associated with an increase in local carbon dioxide emissions, yet its spatial spillover effects were limited. By contrast, in 2020, while its influence on local emissions became statistically insignificant, it demonstrated a substantial carbon reduction effect in neighboring regions. (4) Digital innovation has consistently played a critical role in reducing carbon dioxide emissions. However, compared to 2015, the overall effectiveness of digital innovation in mitigating carbon dioxide emissions has shown signs of weakening, both locally and in adjacent areas. The results emphasize the pivotal role of digital transformation in mitigating carbon dioxide emissions, thereby providing a robust empirical foundation for the development of low-carbon cities.