An hourly climate projection and renewable energy generation dataset for power system modeling in China

As renewable energy deployment expands, power systems are increasingly sensitive to climate variability. Global Climate Models (GCMs) are commonly used to assess climate change impacts on future power systems. However, GCM outputs are typically only available at daily or coarser temporal resolutions, insufficient for the hourly granularity required by power system models, as both demand and renewable output show strong diurnal variations affecting system operation and planning. To address this, we present an hourly climate projection and renewable energy generation dataset for China, developed using an analog-based temporal downscaling method at a 0.5° spatial resolution. Our dataset ensures physically consistent meteorological variables and coherent daily statistics across multiple GCMs and socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), providing physically credible representations of plausible future climates rather than precise forecasts. Covering 2021-2060, it includes projections from five GCMs under four SSPs. The meteorology and renewable power dataset support studies on renewable energy potential, power system reliability, and energy transition pathways under future climate conditions, bridging the gap between climate projections and energy system modeling.

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Publication Details

Journal
Scientific Data
Published
2025-12-12
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-025-06396-5
Citations
1
Primary Topic
Integrated Energy Systems Optimization
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
0.73

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An hourly climate projection and renewable energy generation dataset for power system modeling in China

Ying Qiao, Zongxiang Lu, Benjamin F. Hobbs, Ruijie Chen et al.
1 citations
Scientific Data
Integrated Energy Systems Optimization
0.73
article

An hourly climate projection and renewable energy generation dataset for power system modeling in China

Ying Qiao, Zongxiang Lu, Benjamin F. Hobbs, Ruijie Chen, Yury Dvorkin
article en
1 citations

Abstract

As renewable energy deployment expands, power systems are increasingly sensitive to climate variability. Global Climate Models (GCMs) are commonly used to assess climate change impacts on future power systems. However, GCM outputs are typically only available at daily or coarser temporal resolutions, insufficient for the hourly granularity required by power system models, as both demand and renewable output show strong diurnal variations affecting system operation and planning. To address this, we present an hourly climate projection and renewable energy generation dataset for China, developed using an analog-based temporal downscaling method at a 0.5° spatial resolution. Our dataset ensures physically consistent meteorological variables and coherent daily statistics across multiple GCMs and socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), providing physically credible representations of plausible future climates rather than precise forecasts. Covering 2021-2060, it includes projections from five GCMs under four SSPs. The meteorology and renewable power dataset support studies on renewable energy potential, power system reliability, and energy transition pathways under future climate conditions, bridging the gap between climate projections and energy system modeling.

Scientific DataVol. 13(1)
Johns Hopkins University (US), Tsinghua University (CN)
National Natural Science Foundation of China
Openalex Percentile: Top 21%
Integrated Energy Systems Optimization
0.73
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An hourly climate projection and renewable energy generation dataset for power system modeling in China — Ying Qiao, Zongxiang Lu, et al. · Scientific Data (2025) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS